Antonio C. Abaya - Mindanao Independence

There is never a dull moment in this country. If you think we have gone through the worst after the street demos and the threatened “revolutionary council” of Jejomar Binay and JV Ejercito fizzled out for lack of support from the middle class, think again.

There is the unexplained disappearance of Virgilio Garcillano who would have been the most important witness in any investigation of alleged cheating in May 2004, including the impeachment trial of President Arroyo in the Senate, if it ever progresses to that stage.

Whichever way you look at it, only President Arroyo would benefit from Garci’s disappearance, and only Philippine government officials, acting in a conspiracy, could have made that disappearance possible.

Neither the opposition trapos nor the communist movement nor anyone else could have engineered that escape, nor would any of them have benefited one whit from it. In any crime investigation, motive and capability are the most important elements, and the Arroyo government seems to be the only entity that has both and is therefore the prime suspect.

This issue cannot be swept under the rug as it is connected to the impeachment trial in the Senate, which does not look like it is going to materialize. Which in turn is connected to the life-saver thrown by former President Fidel Ramos to GMA, which seems meant to mollify and pacify public anger over the expected collapse of the impeachment process.

And this life-saver calls for all elected national officials to resign their positions by February 2006 to give way to constitutional amendments, and new elections under a federal parliamentary system of government, before end of June 2006.

It’s the old Roman trick. If the masses are restless because they do not have enough rice and fish to eat (due to the increasing cost of oil), give them the Circus Maximus, with the trapos racing madly in their bulletproof chariots, while gambling lords collect bets on the rigged outcome. And at the same time, feed Garci to the lions. That should keep him quiet forever and everyone else cheering wildly for more. *****

Independence and Federalism. In my article “Abueva’s Can of Worms” (August 09), I warned that the federalism being peddled by former UP President Jose Abueva is going to strengthen the grip of political dynasties on their feudal enclaves in the provinces, and at the same time embolden those who even now are clamoring for the independence of their regions, especially Mindanao, from the rest of the Philippines.

I included in that article a letter from Reader Erineo Cabahug, of the Bronx, New York, which did precisely that, argue for the independence of Mindanao. While I did my best to refute his arguments, he has emailed his reply, which I am excerpting below without any comments from me:

“Dear Mr. Abaya, Thank you for discussing my letter in your article. Your opinion is respected but I strongly disagree with the paranoia regarding our Muslim brothers. That is the old ‘divide and rule’ mentality fostered by the Spanish and American colonialists and conveniently carried on by the Manila elite. Besides, it is up to the Christians in Mindanao to make that judgment call………

“With a debt burden so ruinous that 90% of government revenue goes to debt servicing, it will only be a matter of time before it self-destructs. With the kind of debt trap that the Philippines is caught in, there will eventually be no funds (left) to feed, educate, or even defend itself. Poverty, mismanagement and internal turmoil will take their toll and the present ‘soft’ state will become a putrid one. History has shown that the Philippines can be counted on to be its own worst enemy. And the laws of nature point to the fact that rotten fruit will fall and disintegrate from their own weight.

“In the meantime, the people of Mindanao simply wait and observe. They are discerning enough to know that they cannot hurry nature. They know that time is on their side and, in the end, things will fall into their natural place. I am very confident that Muslims, Christians and Lumads in Mindanao will be able to live in harmony and prosperity in the future.

“The Philippines has had its time. But it has squandered all its opportunities, and it will soon be the time of reckoning. Time and history, and even the Judaeo-Christian God, are not likely to be kind to the Philippines……..”

This in turn drew reaction from other readers.

Reader Juan Deiparine, of Toril, Davao City, emailed: “Sir: I read your posting on www.tapatt.org on ‘Federalism No Panacea.’ I read Mr. Cabahug’s reply to your article and I must say that he makes a good case for independence. After all, our government and our politicians have shown so little concern or compassion for ordinary citizens. And, I must admit, this includes those from other regions all over the country as well.

“As Mr. Cabahug points out, love begets love. Phrases like JFK’s ‘Ask not what your country can do for you….’ make good political slogans, but they do not reflect reality. Even in love and marriage, it is often a two-way relationship, unless one partner were a masochist or an aspiring martyr.

“For too long, Filipinos have had to migrate to other countries to improve their standard of living. Perhaps Mr. Cabahug just takes this logic to the extreme when he says that people from Mindanao want to be independent. By becoming independent, everyone in Mindanao instantly migrates from the mess that is the Philippines.

“Perhaps this also reflects the feelings of citizens in other regions. After all, surveys indicate that a large percentage of Filipinos would want to migrate abroad. I think the message here is that a nation has to take care of its citizens. It cannot command loyalty or patriotism if it is so indifferent and unresponsive to the people’s needs and aspirations.”

And Reader Carl Cid S.M. Inting of Cebu City emailed: “Dear Mr. Abaya, I read ‘Federalism No Panacea’ and the attending reactions from your readers in your website. I would like ..to say something about the letter of Mr. Cabahug.

“If Mindanao can repudiate debt by becoming independent, it is an avenue worth exploring. All other regions should encourage Mindanao to break away. Why? Debt is the single biggest drag to our economy.

“GMA’s new budget allocates interest payments alone at P1 BILLION a Day! When debt amortization is included, debt servicing shoots up to more than P2 BILLION PER DAY!!!

“Those are mind-boggling amounts that are siphoned out of our economy. We sure could build a lot of infrastructure and provide a lot of social services with that kind of money. The other regions should closely be watching Mindanao.

“If Mindanao can escape the debt trap through independence, Cebu and the other regions should follow suit. That would mean economic salvation for all of us! Why not make Mindanao the guinea pig for this bold experiment?”

Mindanao independence, as a cause, has been around for decades. But in the past it was the lost cause of rogue military officers and unemployed lawyers. Now it gains currency and respectability with the naïve and ill-advised campaign, by Abueva and Jose de Venecia, for federalism.

And it gains and will gain momentum from the spectacle of the center collapsing and unable to hold. Weakened by scandal after scandal, burdened by a humongous debt that eats up 90% of its revenues, helpless to mitigate the effects of escalating oil prices on the broad mass, morally and financially bankrupt, the center – represented by the Arroyo Government – does not have the moral, financial, political, economic or military clout to keep the periphery from spinning away if they so desire.

As far as I can tell, Readers Cabahug, Deiparine and Inting are private citizens, intelligent reasonable and well-educated. They are not politicians trying to grab media attention or rabble-rousers with a chip on their shoulders. Their opinions are sober and deserve a sober response, which I will essay in a future column.